Well readers, I hope you enjoyed yesterday’s predictions because as promised, I have the second half right here.
I must stress, this is just me doing the nominations. I’m not an expert and I’m basing these predictions according to which films have won what awards in the precursor awards (Metacritic has a handy scorecard of that) and I’m also basing my predictions on what my gut is telling me.
So, with that said, enjoy!
photo courtesy: pbs.org
In 2009, The Academy expanded its best picture race, allowing for ten movies to be nominated for best picture, instead of the traditional five. Last year, they changed that rule to where number of best picture nominees can range from five to ten movies. To be a nominee, a movie needs a minimum of five percent first place votes on the nomination ballot.
While we won’t know the exact number of nominees until they’re announced, I’m going with ten, that way I won’t be wrong.
To start things off, let’s say that the Academy were only doing five movies in the Best Picture category instead of the five-to-ten rule it currently has. If so, those five movies would be: Zero Dark Thirty, Argo, Silver Linings, Les Miserables and Lincoln which have dominated a lot of the precursors.
As for the other five, I’m going with Life of Pi, which has its share of supporters, as does Moonrise Kingdom, despite being released months ago.
As for the remaining three slots, Django Unchained has a good chance of getting in thanks to strong reviews and its huge box office. But it might be too violent for the generally conservative Academy members.
Meanwhile, the indie apocalypse fantasy Beasts of the Southern Wild has a ton of fans and that should be enough for it to get in. And for the last slot, I’m going with the tragic French octogenarian drama Amour, about an old couple in love and facing death.
That said, there is the possibility of spoilers, starting with The Master, once thought to be the frontrunner but has since faded quickly, could pull an eleven hour surge and show up in the best picture race, but it has a better shot in the screenplay and acting categories.
And believe it or not, there’s a chance that Skyfall, the 23 entry in the Bond franchise could get a best picture nomination thanks to its strong critical acclaim and its recent Producer’s Guild Award nomination for best picture.
Beasts of the Southern Wild
Life of Pi
Silver Linings Playbook
Zero Dark Thirty
photo courtesy: aarp.com
Previous Oscar winners Kathryn Bigelow (The Hurt Locker) and Steven Spielberg (Saving Private Ryan, Schindler’s List) have mostly dominated this race for Zero Dark Thirty and Lincoln, respectively. Expect them to show up here.
Meanwhile, Ben Affleck has received the best reviews of his career for directing the ‘70s era espionage thriller Argo. And once considered an unfilmable novel, Life of Pi, the movie, is considered a filmmaker’s achievement, so director Ang Lee could get recognized here. If not, his spot will go to Michael Haneke for Amour.
Les Miserables is fading quickly thanks to some not so strong reviews, so director Tom Hooper may not show up here, opening up his slot to someone like, say, Silver Linings Playbook’s David O. Russell.
Ben Affleck – Argo
David O. Russell – Silver linings Playbook
Kathryn Bigelow – Zero Dark Thirty
Ang Lee – Life of Pi
Steven Spielberg – Lincoln
Photo courtesy: hollywoodnews.com
Lincoln’s Daniel Day Lewis is a sure thing for a win, he’s a lock for a nomination.
Meanwhile, Bradley Cooper , Denzel Washington and Hugh Jackman have won critical acclaim for their performances in Silver Linings Playbook, Flight and Les Miserables, respectively. Expect both of them to show up here.
So far, this list matches the nominees for the Screen Actors Guild awards, a body that’s voted by actors, the largest group of voters in the Academy, so the SAG awards generally indicates what direction the Oscars are leaning to, acting wise.
However, there tends to be at least one difference between that race and the Oscars. Will we see John Hawkes of The Sessions falling off in favor of Arbitrage’s Richard Gere, or The Master’s Joaquin Phoenix? I’m going with Phoenix. I guess I’m seriously expecting this movie to have a comeback.
Bradley Cooper – Silver Linings Playbook
Daniel Day-Lewis – Lincoln
Hugh Jackman – Les Miserables
Joaquin Phoenix – The Master
Denzel Washington – Flight
Jessica Chastain of Zero Dark Thirty and Jennifer Lawrence of Silver Linings Playbook are sure things here.
Naomi Watts scored a SAG awards nomination for The Impossible which (hopefully) will translate to her second best actress nomination. Emanuella Riva has won a butload of precurser awards for her tragic turn as a stroke victim in Amour. Marion Cotillard also scored several precursor nominations, including a SAG, for her role as an amputee orca trainer in the French drama Rust and Bone, but I’m not feeling it. I’m giving the fifth slot to 9-year-old Quvenzhane (pronounced Kwuh-VIN-juh-nay) Wallis of Bests of the Southern Wild for playing a brave little bayou girl facing the apocalypse.
If there’s a chance of spoilers, it’ll go to Hitchcock’s Helen Mirren, who got a SAG AND a Golden Globe nomination.
Jessica Chastain – Zero Dark Thirty
Jennifer Lawrence – Silver Linings Playbook
Emanuelle Riva – Amour
Quvenzhane Wallis – Beasts of the Southern Wild
Naomi Watts – The Impossible
Well, those are my picks folks. Any agreements? Disagreements? What are your picks? Anything you’re hoping to be nominated? Sound off below! And don’t forget to follow me on twitter!