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Noted demographer talks census, race

Published: Thursday, February 25, 2010

Updated: Thursday, February 25, 2010

In order to encourage participation in the upcoming U.S. Census, The University of Texas-Pan American in conjunction with the U.S. Census Bureau welcomed a noted demographer to campus Tuesday.

The event, sponsored by the Student Union, featured Steve Murdock, who serves as the Allyn and Gladys Cline Chair in sociology specializing in applied demography, migration, rural sociology, and socioeconomic impact assessment at Rice University.

Murdock, who previously served as director of the Census Bureau and was the first person to occupy the position of state demographer of Texas, spoke about the Hispanic population change in Texas. He also presented historical patterns and future trends affecting education, the labor force and economic development.

The census is a decennial survey mandated by the U.S. Constitution. The population is enumerated every 10 years and the results are used for the apportionment of seats in the House of Representatives, electors to the Electoral College, and the disbursal of federal funds.

“People must become aware of how important the census is,” the former director stated. “It is used to allocate the Congressional seats, electoral votes and government program funding each state receives.”

Not only is it a necessity in those terms but also, Murdock stated, about $435 billion per year and $4.3 trillion per decade are distributed to states on the basis of information gathered from the assessment.

“The census of today is the United States of tomorrow,” Murdock stated. “It is changing everything in ways that are irreversible.”

Since first joining the union in 1845, Texas has grown twice as fast on average than the nation as a whole. In 1990 state population was estimated at 16.9 million and increased by almost 14 percent by 2000 to 20.8 million people living in the Lone Star State. It is expected that the state population will pus 25 million in the latest survey.

The growth of Texas is evident but the increased number of Hispanics in Texas and the country as a whole can be surprising to some, Murdock stated.

From 1980 through 1990 the growth proportion rate for Anglos stood at 34.14 while Hispanics were recorded at 49.11. In 2000 through 2005, Anglos were recorded at a mere 12.73 while Hispanics stood at a 67.73 proportion rate. Nationally, 40 percent of births last year were of Hispanics, and the group has become the nation’s largest minority.

The census includes citizens, non-citizen legal residents, non-citizen, long-term visitors and illegal immigrants.

“Some ask, ‘what is going to happen once immigration ceases,’” Murdock began. “Well we still have 52 percent of the growth we had before, if that does happen it will cause our growth to slow. But in a broader sense, Texas and the U.S. will continue to have increased populations.”

In different regions of the United States the growth of Hispanics has become overwhelmingly evident. In the Northeast the Hispanic population has grown by 14.9 percent since 1990. The Midwest has grown at about 8.8 percent while the South at 32.8 percent and the West at 43.5 percent. This week it was reported that Georgia is the state that has experienced the largest influx.

It is projected the percent of net change attributed to each race and ethnicity group for 2000 through 2040 will be overwhelmingly Hispanic at 77.6 percent. The second largest indicates a melting pot of other ethnicities at 12.6 percent.

The race and ethnicity of the country may be changing, but there is also an age gap to be considered.

“Thirteen years from now fifty percent of the population, at 18 years of age in Texas will be non-Anglo,” Murdock noted.

From 1990 through 2000 the U.S. indicated 49 percent of the population was between the ages of 45-54 while Texas had 60 percent of the same age group.

In 2000, 70 percent of all Anglos in Texas were 65 and older. The percentage of Hispanics 10 years or younger, however, was recorded at 44 percent and this is expected to make a tremendous difference by 2040. By then 69 percent of Hispanics will be 10 years or younger while Anglos will be at a mere 17 percent of 10 years or younger.

Data indicates the percentage of young Hispanics will outnumber the percentages of Anglos not only in population growths but also in age difference.

“The reality of it is that we may have an increasingly younger population but with that comes a new generation,” Murdock concluded.

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